Austin Reaves
NBA Player Comparisons
When considering Austin Reaves as a NBA prospect, it is natural to wonder just how a player with Reaves’ unique skillset translates to the league. After all, 6’6” guards who have spent significant developmental time as both an dynamic off-ball shooter and as a lead ballhandler with creative playmaking and tough shot making ability do not grow on the prospect tree. However, this write-up should demonstrate examples from recent drafts to show how players of Reaves’ approach can perform and produce at a high NBA level.
MALCOLM BROGDON
On the day of the 2016 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks used the 36th overall pick in the 2nd round on a 23 year old 6’5”-6’6” high major guard who proved highly productive as a lead ballhandler as an upperclassman after also achieving success as a more off-ball offensive contributor as an underclassman. This guard produced in many different roles during his NCAA career despite a team context that frequently limits statistical output. Yet, the guard faced doubt in terms of upside because of a perceived lack of footspeed on offense and defense. Even his extremely strong shooting statistical indicators did not prevent lingering shooting questions. Thus, this guard fell to the second round as a “safe” but “unspecial” prospect, but he has made the vast majority of the NBA front offices live with regret ever since. Does this narrative feel familiar to someone in this draft?
Naturally, there are some notable differences between Malcolm Brogdon and Austin Reaves in terms of playing styles, strengths, and weaknesses. Brogdon entered the league automatically as one of the bulkiest guards in the NBA at ~220 pounds and the dribble-drive game Brogdon has successfully translated relies heavily on the strength advantage he often exerts against defenders (as shown above). This enables Brogdon to not slink and probe around ball screens as often as Reaves does but rather barge downhill like a bowling ball while holding defenders off.
While Brogdon’s strength could be opposed to Reaves’ craft, the pull-up jumpers that Austin is already very familiar with didn’t come along for Brogdon until he joined Indiana in free agency. As seniors, Reaves almost had as many catch and shoot jumpers all season as Brogdon had pull-up three pointers (16 for Reaves vs. 15 for Brogdon) as the pull-up jumper became something Brogdon only started taking later in his career. This also demonstrates how older prospects can still improve in the league despite their theoretically flatter age curves.
While Brogdon has earned a reputation for being rather steady as a defender despite a lack of elite quickness, Austin Reaves also provides his own steadiness defensively, albeit in a different manner than Brogdon. While Brogdon is best using his considerable strength and 6’10” wingspan to combat larger wings or other strength-based guards, Reaves provides his own defensive value by anticipating ball screens well and staying attentive off the ball as our defensive breakdown of Reaves demonstrated. Such traits give both players a well-rounded foundation for their skillsets that prevent issues scaling to playoff competition that would offset their offensive talents.
Overall, no comparison is 1 to 1, but the prospect narratives and journeys of Austin Reaves and Malcolm Brogdon have share more similarities than not. Brogdon has had an excellent career of making the most out of early opportunities en route to the Rookie of the Year award and then continuously building off them to become the lead ballhandler on a playoff-level team. Reaves will have to prove he can make similar hay off such an early role. However, there is definitely a reasonable possibility of Reaves doing exactly that and making 20+ NBA teams feel as sheepish as they did in 2016.
SHAKE MILTON
If Malcolm Brogdon’s heights end up just out of reach, another player whose role Reaves could approximate is Philadelphia 76ers lanky sparkplug Shake Milton. Milton fell to 54th overall in the illustrious 2018 NBA Draft after entering the draft as a junior from Southern Methodist University. The 6’6” ~205 pound guard prospect brought a great shooting track record along with ballhandling chops and experience being the primary offense runner for his college team but also significant questions about his viability incorporating explosiveness or quickness to his game at the NBA level. In his burgeoning 76ers career, Milton has carved out a role as a swing starter/bench creator who can offer Philadelphia viable scoring and playmaking off the dribble as both a shooter and driver while contributing to the team’s identity of providing plenty of size for the defensive end. At minimum, Reaves’ history and film suggests even more enthusiasm for Reaves providing driving and playmaking in a Shake type role which compensates for the offensive gap of any worst case scenarios of Reaves’ jumper not equating to Milton’s NBA shooting form.
At SMU, Shake Milton only received the keys to the offense in his final junior season. The season at the helm of the Mustangs enabled Milton to progress his foul drawing craft both on drives and on jumpers (.405 FTA/FGA rate in junior season) which stuck with him as he went up to the pros. Of course, foul drawing craft is also a skill Austin Reaves has mostly mastered in his college career, especially once he had the ball in his hands more in Oklahoma.
The bugaboo for Shake Milton in the lead ballhandler role came with his struggles to completely get to the rim in various scenarios and, perhaps even more prevalent, with his awful sub-50% finishing once Milton arrived at the rim. According to Bart Torvik’s database, Austin Reaves almost surpassed the number of rim attempts Milton had his junior season (64) with rim makes in his senior season (59) despite playing in a COVID-shortened season. Milton has been able to greatly improve upon his rim finishing and driving threat in the NBA, thanks to the athletic gains professional training can bestow on a player.
| Name | Year | Field Goal Makes at Rim | Field Goal Attempts at Rim | Field Goal Percentage at Rim |
| Austin Reaves | 2020-21 | 59 | 96 | 61.5% |
| Shake Milton | 2017-18 | 31 | 64 | 48.4% |
However, the improvements still take a backseat to the variance of Shake’s pull-up shooting effectiveness, whims that fortunately favor Milton more times than not. In comparison, Austin Reaves should provide more consistency in the Milton role with higher frequency of pressuring the defense near the rim and more dynamic passing. The result could be a bench ballhandler who can win a playoff game or two with his confident scoring and playmaking as well as a heady off ball shooter when playing next to greater offensive talent all in one, just as Milton has hinted towards.
JORDAN POOLE
Jordan Poole has intrigued in his sophomore season this past year with the Golden State Warriors as a 6’5” pick-and-roll ballhandler who plays with the utmost assuredness as both a shooter and passer. After being drafted 28th overall in the 2019 NBA Draft by the Warriors, Poole underwent a rough rookie season where he looked behind the 8 ball in terms of catching up to NBA athleticism. An extra offseason (and pandemic stoppage) of training remedied the severity of the athletic deficiencies, though, to let Poole highlight his microwave offense in more significant flashes in 2020-21.
Poole found a path to use decisive moves to take advantage of early offense and transition opportunities to catch unsettled defenses on their heels and mitigate his athletic disadvantages exploding from a standstill. Whether pulling up from deep in transition, quickly organizing a ball screen to catch a lax defender off guard in space, finding his oft-moving Warrior teammates open, or moving along the perimeter to get a head start on his defender before he gets the ball, Poole always looked to keep the defense forever in the processing stage. This method of punishing defenses is also Austin Reaves’ modus operandi, seizing upon defensive mistakes aggressively and constantly.
Yet, on top of the quick seizing of advantages surrendered by defenses, unlike Jordan Poole, Austin Reaves has demonstrated an ability to manufacture a scoring chance from next to nothing when the defense does not yield an obvious opportunity beforehand, a skill that can elevate Reaves above even Poole as a scorer and passer. The experience and repetitions of the less fluid Oklahoma offensive sets have prepared Reaves against set defenses in a way Michigan’s more robust opening-generating offense did not for Poole.
According to Synergy play tracking, despite his reputation as a dynamic scorer, Jordan Poole only ran an isolation possession about once every two games for a paltry efficiency of 0.54 points per possession this season. This points to how the Warriors have likely done well to maneuver Poole into positions of strength before attacking but also how limited Poole’s strengths currently are. If a team is pursuing a player in this 2021 NBA draft class to replicate Poole’s offensive promise, Reaves is an excellent choice who can also plausibly perform even better by feeling comfortable in isolation without delving into full-on ball stopping.
JALEN BRUNSON
To wind down this writeup, it seems fruitful to exhibit how a player predominantly based on scoring craft and awareness can still carve a sizable and underrated role inside the league, even without one of Austin Reaves’ key advantages: his 6’6” height. For this demonstration, let’s examine 6’2” point guard Jalen Brunson, the former 33rd overall pick of the 2018 NBA Draft by the Dallas Mavericks. Brunson exited his NCAA career at Villanova with not only two national championships as a starter but also with one of the most dominant guard seasons in recent NCAA history in his 2017-18 National Player of the Year winning junior season. As a Villanova Wildcat, Brunson consistently displayed a vast arsenal of dribble moves, counters, gather patterns, and balanced shot forms to perpetually get to his various spots and score with monster efficiency.
Despite such a gaudy scoring track record from all three levels, Brunson had doubts cast over his ability to translate such a role to the NBA with his lack of explosiveness and size. Therefore, Brunson was often tagged as the caretaker game-managing backup point guard, and his path to success got couched in a future of safe decision making without the dynamism to truly run an offense full time. Well, Jalen Brunson has certainly shown offensive dynamism in his 3 years as a pro, even if the ascension of his draftmate Luka Doncic has ensured Brunson’s responsibilities were always manageable.
In 2020-21, Jalen Brunson was able to score more points per possession for the Mavericks than more notable bucket-getters Kendrick Nunn, Dennis Schroeder, and Coby White, all while maintaining his relatively mistake-free style of running offense. Despite his physical tools not popping loudly, his levels of assurance in footwork, ballhandling, jumper mechanics, and adeptness in choosing the proper angles when attacking the basket all explode off the screen for Brunson as a scorer. His finishing dominance in the paint has translated as Brunson led all guards with at least 5 drives per game in Drive FG% according to NBA dot com’s Second Spectrum tracking data. The shooting has also been maintained as Brunson complemented his driving flourishes with a 40% mark from beyond the arc. This scoring package implies Brunson has more leaps in production incoming if the responsibility ever has to fall on his shoulders as a higher minute player, but, for now, a baseline of being on the shortlist of best backup guards in the league has been established without merely “caretaking” on offense.
Now, imagine such scoring craft in a 6’6” guard with more avenues to punish a defense.
CONCLUSION
The takeaway here should not be that Austin Reaves will have the careers of these four promising guards. Rather, we aim to show recent precedent for Reaves’ play style, and to give reasons for optimism in Reaves forging a similar outcome in the next five years. Austin Reaves is a unique player in many ways, but he is a player whose individual scoring, passing, defensive skills, and size have all given NBA teams security when the traits were found in other talented guards of the past. Now, just imagine how secure you could be a year from now if you draft a player with all those traits together.