Austin Reaves
Defensive Overview
“Defense wins championships”. That old adage has survived years of talking head overuse, and while the actual truth of it is dependent on the exact argument being made, there’s little doubt that being good at defense is valuable and being bad at defense is harmful.
The problem is that there’s no such thing as just being good at defense. Sure, you can aggregate a bunch of individual abilities into one overall estimate, but if there’s an action you can’t handle, NBA teams will find that and attack it. This was recently made very clear in the 2020 finals: the Miami Heat struggled as the Los Angeles Lakers repeatedly got the ball to whoever was being guarded by Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, and Kendrick Nunn, and took advantage of their limitations. But that’s not the first time that’s happened by any stretch of the imagination. In the multiple finals matchups between the two teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers frequently targeted the Golden State Warriors’ Steph Curry by trying to force him to switch onto larger players that he wasn’t physically strong enough to provide resistance against. And it doesn’t even have to be a matter of physical limitations: Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers attacked then Houston Rockets PG Russell Westbrook’s tendency to overplay certain rotations in the 2019 playoffs.
The point here being: teams find ways to attack the defensive weak links, especially in the playoffs when it matters most, so it’s important that players are able to hold their own on that end. We’re going to show that Austin Reaves can manage that and even more.
Statistical Overview
For those of you familiar with our write-ups, you will note that this one is significantly less statistically driven than prior write-ups. This is because public statistical support for defense is optimistically underpowered to capture something as complex as individual defense, and pessimistically totally useless because the scale of the problem so far outstrips the data-based tools available to solve it. Furthermore, there’s an additional layer in which different skills translate differently between the NCAA level and the NBA level. The shot blocker who just stands in the paint hunting blocks in college and the zone wing who does nothing but jump passing lanes never get to transfer those skills to the NBA, where defenders who read the offense and rotate well get punished when the guy behind them on the metaphorical defensive string fails to do the same. As a result, we’ll keep this section brief. Reaves’s career STL% and BLK% of 1.6% and 1.3% respectively are unexceptional but in line with his peers, as shown in the table below.
Since those numbers form the core of most public aggregates, you can pick your favorite and this whole group will pretty much come up within the margin of error for the stat (especially given that line-up data, the other common input, doesn’t really get enough data to represent the “true” number on a college-sized sample).
But we’re not here to tell you that Austin Reaves is only as good as his peers because that’s not really the case. After all, his “event creation” is arguably his weakest defensive skill, so we need to branch outside of things representable on public data. Those numbers contain only a small fraction of a player’s defensive ability, so we need to dive into the film instead.
Getting Over Ball Screens:
The first major defensive skill that we’ll cover for Austin Reaves is his ability to get over ball screens effectively. This is an important part of every major pick and roll coverage, but it’s especially valued in drop defenses. Regardless, the faster the ball handler’s man gets around the screen, the less time the screener’s man has to spend in a 1 on 2. In addition, the risk of a slip into a lob is reduced, and even the pull up jumper, the shot that standard drop coverage is designed to give up, is more likely to be contested. This principle is core to how Milwaukee’s defense operates. All three of Eric Bledsoe, Jrue Holiday, and Donte DiVincenzo have been of utmost importance to Milwaukee’s drop defense in recent seasons because of their ability to consistently get over ball screens. And while we’re certainly making no claims that Reaves is an elite defensive guard like both Eric Bledsoe and Jrue Holiday have been at various points in time, he can certainly be an important defensive piece the same way that Donte DiVincenzo is. The Bucks’ ability to play drop coverage has suffered in DiVincenzo’s absence even though they still have Jrue Holiday.
Which is why it’s such a big deal that Austin Reaves is arguably the best player in this class at anticipating ball screens and getting over them, just like the Orlando Magic’s Cole Anthony was last year. In this clip below, the screen is just the slightest bit early. By the time McKinley Wright has caught the ball, Reaves has already gotten low and gotten over the screen. Moses Wright tries to reposition and probably commits a moving screen along the way, but it does absolutely nothing: Reaves has already beaten the screen and the drive goes nowhere.
But that’s not the only way Reaves pressures ball screens. In that same game, we saw this play:
You’ll note there’s not a ball screen in this play, and that’s because Reaves makes it impossible. Jericho Sims switches the side of the screen to McKinley Wright’s dominant right hand. When Sims switches, Reaves turns his shoulders so that if a screen is set, he can get around it more quickly, which causes Wright to back out. Sims tries to switch sides again, and Reaves goes in tight to Wright. Wright sees this and tries to take advantage by driving, because it’s not likely that he’ll be able to make use of a screen with Reaves so close up, but Reaves shadows him the whole way to the rim. This play requires high level awareness of where the screeners are, understanding of how the play can develop from the set of circumstances, and the physical ability to keep the guy contained even after you pressure up to him. Reaves has constantly executed that difficult play no matter the time and place. From the disorganized combine scrimmages to when he was a role player at Wichita St. to when he was doing everything on offense, that play and plays like it have been constant, and you can’t teach that level of thought process.
In short, Austin Reaves is so good at being early to screens and getting his body angled in the right direction that it is entirely appropriate for us, an agency that prides ourselves on not overselling, to call him the best guard in the class at getting over ball screens, even in a class with players like Davion Mitchell and Aaron Henry.
Low Tags
Reaves’s next noteworthy skill is his ability to understand when to low tag. If getting over ball screens is more valuable in a drop scheme (though valuable everywhere), then understanding how and when to low tag is more valuable in a show and recover scheme (But still valuable everywhere). When the defense shows on a ball screen, the offense will typically respond by having the big man flash into space. Once the big man catches the ball, the offense has a 4 on 3, and the defense has to respond by quickly rotating until everything is covered. But the first of those rotations, and the one with arguably the most responsibility, is the low tag. In most ideal cases, a defender from the “weak side” will slide over to get in the path of the big man to the basket, and their job is to stop him. The defender has to be early to the play, or they’ll just commit a blocking foul or end up stuck in the restricted circle. They have to make sure it’s their rotation because rotating from the “strong side” can lead to a wide open 3 point shooter, and they have to be able to actually impact the driving big in some way. For Reaves at Oklahoma, impacting the driving big could mean any number of things. He took a lot of charges out of this low tag set-up, similar to Charlotte’s Martin twins. But where the Martin twins often struggled defensively last year when they couldn’t draw the charge, Reaves consistently found other ways to impact the big, like in this clip here
Sometimes, Reaves’s impact on the big is a little more subtle – he only needs to be in position and make it harder for the big man. That’s what we saw him do in the rare times he was the weak side defender on the opposite block during the combine scrimmages.
In the above play, Sandro Mamukelashvili shows, so now there are two men guarding McKinley Wright and Jericho Sims is uncovered. Now, look at when Reaves moved to low tag. He isn’t reacting to Sims getting open — in fact, he’s moving before Sims is open — he’s moving based on the type of coverage. This is in contrast to someone like the Mavericks’ Josh Green, who has struggled defensively at times because he reacts to the relative positions of the players instead of understanding the actions involved and reacting to them. Instead of trying to block the hyper athletic Sims, Reaves attacks the passing lane and cuts off the entry pass. This is only made possible because he’s so early to the low tag, and making it just a little bit harder for the big man gives Mamukelashvili sufficient time to recover and the play is dead, though just for good measure Reaves has the awareness to immediately pick up the cutting Josh Primo who is relocating to try to reset the floor balance.
Zone Ups
While at Oklahoma, Austin Reaves’s primary weak side responsibility was to be a low tagger, in the combine scrimmages he was more frequently asked to zone up while someone else was the low tagger. This makes contextual sense — at Oklahoma Reaves was frequently the third or even fourth-shortest player on the court for the Sooners, which meant opposing guards would have to be given to guys like DeVion Harmon, Umoja Gibson, and Elijah Harkless, since that’s all they can handle. And since the low tag usually comes from a corner shooter whereas the zone up is more likely to come from a secondary ball handler, Reaves would’ve more frequently been in a low tag role. In the NBA, where big initiators like Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons are more common, Reaves will still have to low tag, but he’ll also be asked to match up with the secondary handlers more often, resulting in more occasions where he needs to zone up.
But fortunately, Reaves demonstrated in the combine scrimmages that he’s more than capable of doing this at a textbook level.
In this play, Sam Hauser is the low tagger after Mamukelashvili and Aaron Wiggins show and recover on the pick and roll. At this point, there are 2 players on the weak side, and Reaves is covering both McKinley Wright and Julian Champagnie. Reaves immediately moves into position to cover both of them, and as Mamukelashvili recovers, Hauser recovers, and Reaves gets back to McKinley Wright for a defense that has fully recovered from the scramble situation created by the original show because Reaves and Hauser both moved on a string.
Like we talked about with how Reaves gets over screens though, the simple action of getting over the screen is only a small fraction of what makes him excellent. Let’s look at this broken play, for example.
After Sandro Mamukelashvili and Duane Washington show on the pick and roll, Kessler Edwards makes the correct decision to low tag. Mamukelashvili sticks on the show a little bit too long, and the ball is able to reverse to the side where Reaves is 1 on 2 because Makur Maker can’t exactly leave his man. This is an unwinnable situation, so the best thing to do is lose in the optimal way. So what does Reaves do? Well, he goes to the ball. This has 3 key effects:
- 1, it stops the immediate threat and forces one extra chance for error.
- 2, it gives extra time for Kessler Edwards to recover.
- 3, it takes the ball out of the hands of Bones Hyland, who had been shooting nearly perfectly on the day.
But Reaves doesn’t just go to the ball. Taking advantage of his length, he gets both his left hand out to make himself big and make it hard for Hyland to drive around him and his right hand towards the passing lane. Everything that any defender could have done in that situation, Reaves executes.
Nail Help
When you’re in that higher up position near the elbow, zoning up isn’t your only defensive responsibility. While the level of aggression varies a lot by scheme — teams like the Chicago Bulls were among the most aggressive in this regard — most modern defenses will ask the off guard to “dig” onto drives in the middle of the court and help at the nail.
In other words, they’ll ask Austin Reaves to do exactly this:
Julian Champagnie drives and has a bit of an advantage on Kessler Edwards. Reaves steps to the nail, gets a hand in to dig, and forces Champagnie to pick up his dribble. Reaves does this without taking himself out of position to guard McKinley Wright, and in doing so his dig stalls out the possession as Kessler Edwards is able to get back into position. But all of that buries the lede. The nail help is textbook, but what’s important here again is when Austin Reaves started moving into position. He doesn’t wait for the play to develop and for Champagnie to clearly be a driving threat. The second the ball is out of McKinley Wright’s hands, Reaves knows his next responsibility is to dig and he does. As always, Reaves anticipates, moves earlier than anyone else would, and is rewarded with the best defensive result.
Switchability
The final major defensive action that we see every team use for their guards is a switch. The ability to guard multiple different positions is valuable in today’s NBA, and it’s especially valuable for guards. Teams like the Boston Celtics have put significant effort into being able to protect their small guards like Kemba Walker and Tremont Waters from being isolated onto big men in switch situations, and while the offense from those players is worth the defensive tradeoffs, it’s an additional layer of complexity that makes playing defense just that much harder than it already is. Which is why a guard like Austin Reaves, who does not need protection on a switch, has a lot of value. Standing 6’5.75” with a 6’6.25” wingspan, Reaves is much taller and longer than the average guard. This gives him the ability to cover a range of players, and he frequently does so. We talked earlier about how Reaves would play as a forward defensively in some Oklahoma lineups, but we can be a little bit more specific in showing his versatility.
Here, Reaves is isolated against 6’ PG McKinley Wright.
Reaves angles his hips to account for Wright’s right-hand dominance, flips them immediately when Wright crosses over without losing ground, and uses his length to get a tight contest on the pull-up.
Here, Reaves is matched up against someone his own size, 6’5” David Duke.
Once again, Reaves angles his hips to account for the dominant hand, and when Duke settles for the pull-up, Reaves is right there for the contest to make it a tough shot yet again.
How about someone a little longer and a little more athletic, like Josh Primo?
This time it’s an isolation, but now it’s not at the top of the key; it’s on the sideline, so Reaves doesn’t angle his hips to assume the dominant hand but instead forces the driver baseline and into Makur Maker’s established rim protection. When Primo tries to change directions to get to the middle, Reaves denies it. Primo can have the baseline all he wants, but Reaves is playing his assignment and putting the driver exactly where the defense wants them without issue. And when Johnny Juzang misses his cover down assignment (traditionally Juzang should have been the one preventing that dump off pass to Moses Wright by stepping under as soon as Maker steps up to protect the rim), Reaves recovers to block one of last years’ leading collegiate dunkers.
And hey, we’ve covered the PG, the SG, and the SF; What about the PF?
Well, Reaves is never going to be ideal matched up against those, nor are virtually any non-Marcus Smart guards, but let’s look at this matchup with Matthew Hurt, created by confusion on a double drag screen.
Reaves recognizes that Hurt, an excellent shooter, is wide open, and scrambles to him so that the open man isn’t one pass away. Hurt gets the ball and drives, but Reaves absorbs multiple push-offs from the much larger player and stalls out the drive without being overpowered. Hurt isn’t the most athletic player in the league — for that matter, he’ll likely be among the least — but he is an effective driver for a 6’9” player, and Reaves was able to hold him in isolation.
Physical Tools
The primary concern for Austin Reaves as a defender is that he’s just not athletic enough. There are three clear counter arguments to this, some of which we’ve already more or less built the base of. First, the place where physical tools are most important is in the ability to defend on ball in isolation. If you can keep up with your man there, then in other places you can make up for physical ability with technique and anticipation. And as we showed in the section on switchability, Austin Reaves is able to keep all kinds of players in front of him and provide tight contests on their looks. Now, none of the players we showed you are LeBron James or Chris Paul or Damian Lillard, but there are no players league-wide with sufficient physical tools to keep those players under control, and all of these stars typically use screens to create their advantages anyway. Second, it is absolutely possible to be early enough to a rotation that poor physical tools no longer matter.
But the most important argument regarding Austin Reaves’s physical tools is that they’re actually closer to average than to bad. Because we are the numbers guys, let’s build at least a simple model here. Taller players and heavier players tend to be slower and jump a shorter distance. So creating a simple linear model by regressing height, weight, and wingspan (Which was included as a general proxy for a player’s frame) onto the respective combine athletic measurements, we can predict what the expected result for a given height, weight, and frame are. The actual results and predicted results are shown in the table below:
As you can see, Reaves tested a little below average for his frame as a standing jumper, but made up for that by being incredibly fast — 12th for the entire combine — in the lane agility drill. He tested a little below average in the shuttle run, but made up for that by being the 10th fastest in the entire combine on the 3/4ths court sprint. Overall he has strengths and weaknesses relative to the average, but is by no means weak.
Even beyond what the model predicts, let’s look at a few of his peers. There have been very few public questions about Aaron Henry’s athleticism, but Reaves was .74 seconds faster on the lane agility drill, virtually identical in the shuttle run, sprint, and running vert, and 4 inches behind in the standing vert. Ayo Dosunmu is widely regarded as an elite athlete, and while he did outjump Reaves by 6.5 inches standing and 4 inches running, Reaves was faster on every single speed measure: .57 seconds on lane agility, .08 in shuttle run, and .16 seconds in the sprint. Quentin Grimes also outleaped Reaves in a similar fashion — 4.5 inches standing, 3.5 inches running — but once again Austin Reaves was just faster than his peer: .15 seconds faster on lane agility, .16 on the shuttle run, and tied on the 3/4ths court sprint. Reaves gets underestimated physically for various reasons, but at least as far as the combine is able to show, he is not athletically outmatched.
Conclusion
Here’s the thing about all of the film just showed to you: every single clip in the preceding sections was from the first combine scrimmage alone. Austin Reaves so constantly makes an impact in every single one of those areas that, in the span of less than 20 minutes, there was enough film to make a compelling case with multiple examples in a variety of defensive actions. Most prospects in that game wouldn’t have covered two.
Seth Partnow, former director of basketball research for the Bucks, has said that the best defense is often “visually quiet”. You see the guy who’s sprinting back into position. You don’t always see the guy who was a half step ahead and already in position. We know there are questions about Austin’s ability to defend in the NBA, but to us the quiet things are loud: Austin Reaves is not merely able; he’s a difference-maker.