January 18th

As perhaps the greatest shotmaking prospect in modern NCAA history, any analysis of Darryn Peterson’s statistical profile must start with his shotmaking indicators. This first installment of his player profile write-up will center primarily around that.

Peterson has made 41% of his 64 three-point attempts and 53% of his 38 midrange attempts thus far, the former of which ranks in the 90th percentile among guards when adjusted for sample sizes. These are both clearly elite numbers that no freshman in the NCAA currently matches, a feat that summarizes Peterson’s current shotmaking prowess. However, when projecting shotmakers to the NBA, there are a couple of numbers more predictive than three-point percentage: free-throw percentage and shooting volume.

Free-Throw Percentage: Free-throw percentage is often more predictive of an NBA player’s shotmaking ability than their current three-point percentage for two reasons. One, it stabilizes within small sample sizes more quickly than three-point percentage, which is important in a short 30 to 35-game season compared to the NBA’s 82-game season. Two, it is the most standardized shot in basketball as it’s the same for everyone (thus prone to less variance), which enables a clean comparison between two players whose three-point shot diets might otherwise be different. In Peterson’s case, his high degree of difficulty on three-point attempts negatively skews his percentage, so his 41% actually underrates his true shotmaking ability. His 93rd percentile free-throw percentage is closer to his true shotmaking ability… but is still missing the other piece of the puzzle.

Shooting Volume: Together, a player’s three-point attempt volume and midrange attempt volume represent their aggregate shooting volume. High shooting volume is far more predictive of an NBA player’s shotmaking ability than elite three-point accuracy with low shooting volume, since an abnormally large shooting volume requires the ability to get a shot off in every situation imaginable. This is also known as shot versatility, and it’s what powers the greatest offensive engines of all-time. Peterson is currently shooting a whopping 25 non-rim attempts (15.7 three-point attempts plus 9.3 midrange attempts) per 100 possessions played, a number powered by tremendous shooting versatility. Peterson’s absurd shooting volume paired with his high free-throw percentage project him to be one of the all-time great NBA shotmakers.

A simple statistical query to depict Peterson’s all-time great shotmaking potential follows. Through nine games, he’s made 83.3% of his free throws, 52.6% of his midrange shots, and 40.6% of his threes with 15.7 attempts per 100 possessions. Only one freshman since 2008 has made at least 80% of their free throws, 45% of their midrange attempts, and 40% of their three-point attempts with over 15 attempts per 100 possessions. His name? Darryn Peterson. Generational shotmaking paired with a long wingspan is what powers the greatest players in NBA history — think Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Pairing a 6-foot-11 wingspan with both pristine shooting touch and immense shooting volume means this level of goodness is not out of the question for Peterson. AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer are both tremendous basketball players in their own right, but neither of them are either currently as good as nor carry the all-time great potential that Peterson does. For these reasons, Darryn Peterson should and likely will be the undisputed number one pick come draft night.