February 2nd

The NBA pitch for Emanuel Sharp is quite simple: he’s college basketball’s premier sharpshooter. While he’s converted a strong 37% of his threes this season, which ranks in the 91st percentile, even that number undersells his shooting excellence. For one, in-season shooting percentages are notoriously fickle, as they rise and fall multiple percentage points from season to season. Take Sharp’s 41% from last season; his raw percentage might be 4% lower, but he’s still the same caliber of shooter who demands the same strong closeouts that he did last year.

The underlying reason for that last sentence brings us to our second point: shooting volume matters more than shooting percentage. This is statistically proven; there is a strong correlation between how often a player is guarded on their threes and their three-point volume, but hardly any correlation between how often they’re guarded and their three-point accuracy. Defenders are more likely to react to the threat of a high-volume shooter, rather than the non-threat of a high-accuracy but low-volume shooter. Thus, high-volume shooters and the value they bring through “floor spacing” remains the same even as their three-point percentage might fluctuate. Emanuel Sharp attempts an enormous 17 threes per 100 possessions, which ranks in the 97th percentile among guards.

Our third point blends the first two: shooting accurately and on high volume is a rare integration. There are plenty of high-volume, low-accuracy shooters who bring value through only floor spacing, but leave value through making shots. There are also plenty of low-volume, high-accuracy shooters who bleed value through floor spacing, but bring value through making shots. Those with both high volume and accuracy are rare, but those are the most impactful shooters. With 91st percentile accuracy and 97th percentile volume, Emanuel Sharpe is the highly impactful shooter who blends accuracy and volume like no other shooter in the 2026 NBA draft class.