(January 6th) The number we want to highlight on this profile is “shot possessions”. This is, as you might assume, the total number of possessions that the player ends with a shot of some kind, whether FGA or FTA. In it, Derkack has moved from the 44th percentile to the 51st percentile, indicating he is proactively seeking his own shot just a little more.
It is, however, probably at the point where we should talk about the complications in the approach we use to sample-size stabilizing, and how specifically that impacts Derkack’s true shooting. Effectively, the way we calculate true shooting is using the standard formula PTS/(2*Shooting Possessions), but we instead use the sample stabilized values for points and shooting possessions. The problem is that because FT’s stabilize much more quickly than other kinds of scoring, players who are really, really good at drawing fouls tend to get over-represented in true shooting, because you can become a meaningful outlier in them much more quickly. As a result, while we believe Derkack can be as efficient as we’re currently projecting, right now it would be difficult to sell to a team without continued improvement on efficiency from at least two-point range. It can’t come at the cost of volume, since those shot possession increases are important – it just has to somehow happen.
(December 12th) Jordan Derkack has three primary statistical selling points to NBA teams: His ability to get to the line, his defense, and his passing. So far this season, all three of those boxes are being checked reliably. Derkack ranks in the 91st percentile for free throw rate, the 93rd percentile for steals, and the 97th percentile for assists.
But those are the positive reasons for Derkack to be in the NBA, and teams often focus instead on the negative reasons for him not to be in the league. His scoring appears, at face value, to be a weakness. And this is where we would like to say “no, it’s not actually a weakness, these statistics show that he’s actually a good scorer”. Unfortunately, what we would like to say is not necessarily what we can actually honestly say. Right now, Derkack simply does not attempt to score enough (34th percentile in 2PA, 36th in 3PA) to be viewed as a credible scorer. We understand that on a roster with Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, scoring is not his primary responsibility, but those two will have off nights and Derkack needs to be able to put the ball in the hoop more than he currently is.
That said, while we may not be able to defend Derkack’s current output as being representative of a good scorer, we can absolutely point out that, because Derkack gets to the line so often, creating some of the most efficient points in basketball, the times when he does elect to score are actually decently efficient on average – a true shooting percentage in the 73rd percentile is nothing to scoff at.