(February 9th) As samples get bigger over the course of the season, it’s more and more likely that you won’t see significant changes in statistics from a week to week basis. That kind of shows up in Keshon Gilbert’s numbers, where most of the numbers stayed within 5% of their prior value. But the thing about staying in the same place is that it doesn’t make you bad – it just means that the good statistics Gilbert already had are even more clearly true with the additional information. Gilbert is still not a perfect prospect, but the minimal change in his statistics that we see really just tell us that we can be confident in his broadly good numbers.
(January 24th) While Keshon Gilbert is still clearly a very good player, his struggles over the last month have definitely hurt his statistics – he’s only in the 69th percentile of O-PIPM, which, while it’s still clearly above average, isn’t consistent with the level of prospect that Gilbert is. This, in large part, is due to Gilbert hitting an unlucky cold streak with his three point shot – in his last 9 games, Gilbert is shooting 12%. While we certainly wish Gilbert would make a higher percentage of his shots, we actually think it’s better to attribute the extreme outlier result there to the lack of volume he takes. There’s a lot of bad shooters missing a lot of shots out there, but because Gilbert takes so few threes, if he hits a bad run he can quickly find himself in dire outlier territory because he only gets to miss one or two in a given game. In other words, don’t be discouraged about the results – just keep shooting and eventually it’ll level out.
(December 14th) As we discussed last period, a lot of our focus in Keshon Gilbert’s profile is going to be on his turnovers and his three point shot. The turnovers are still a bit of a question mark, though because his assists are going up there are measure we can use to defend them. The three point shot, however, is clearly trending positively; Gilbert still doesn’t take enough threes for the ideal version of an NBA guard, but he has gone from the 20th percentile to the 47th percentile in percentage. There’s still progress to be made, but it’s good to see the jump shot start to level out.
(November 30th) On the one hand, Keshon Gilbert is still struggling with both three point volume and turnovers, ranking in the 17th percentile for three point attempts and the 7th for turnovers. That said, we shouldn’t forget that in spite of that, Gilbert is still an excellent player. He’s getting to the line at a 98th percentile rate, and is overall one of the most efficient scorers in college basketball as a result. Similarly, Gilbert’s overall defensive impact ranks in the 99th percentile in large part due to his excellent steal rate. Gilbert still has things he needs to improve on, but it’s hard to take his overall statistical profile to be anything other than a positive.